Peter Treadway, PhD

image

Will Trump Allow The Us To Continue As The World’s Innovation Economy?

Xenophobia definition: intense or irrational fear of people from other countries.
image

Trump's Poisoned Chalice

Investors are drooling with anticipation that the coming Trump regime through lowering taxes, removing regulatory barriers and stimulating economic growth will continue to boost the stock market. As a bonus, there is the prospect of repatriation to their corporate owners of trillions of corporate dollars that are “trapped” abroad by American taxes. According to one recent forecast, US corporations hold some $2.5 trillion abroad....
Full story
image

The Coming Destruction Of Hong Kong

Hong Kong as I write this is being paralyzed by demonstrations led by idealistic students and left wing Occupy Wall Street types. I spend a lot of time in Hong Kong. But I have to admit. I didn’t see this coming. I never thought this would get this big....
Full story

How Many British Governors Were Elected By The People Of Hong Kong?

The answer to the above question, for those who did not know, is none. In 1841 under duress the Qing Dynasty ceded Hong Kong Island to the British. From 1843 until 1997, when Hong Kong was handed back to China, all Governors of Hong Kong were appointed by the British government. Nobody cried, nobody complained. But now the so called “Occupy Central” people are holding Beijing to a higher standard....
Full story

In Hong Kong - The Peg Is Not Likely To Be Changed

In my opinion, the Hong Kong dollar peg, which has been set since 1983 to the US dollar at 7.80:1.00, should and will remain unchanged. There are sound economic reasons for this but I believe the primary reason is political....
Full story

Investing Under The Law Of Accelerating Returns

“This time it’s different—the most expensive words in investing.” So eminent investor Sir John Templeton has opined....
Full story

A Great Man Cometh?

Every once in a great while a larger than life figure comes along who dramatically changes his (or her) country for the better. Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher and Deng Xiaoping are three that come to mind. Narendra Modi, the just elected future Prime Minister of India, has this potential for greatness. And yes this has significant investment implications....
Full story
image

Time To Pause?

Bend it Like Zuck...
Full story

Really Brave New World

“First let us postulate that the computer scientists succeed in developing intelligent machines that can do all things better than humans can do them. In ...
Full story

It Is China We Need To Worry About

Pleading “guilty” in advance to the charge of excess hubris, I will start this piece with a quote from my last Dismal Optimist:...
Full story
Author Info
image Peter Treadway, PhD is an independent consultant and money manager and Adjunct Professor in Asia. He is currently is principal of Historical Analytics, LLC. Historical Analytics is a consulting/investment management firm dedicated to global portfolio management. Its investment approach is based on Dr. Treadway’s combined top-down and bottom-up Wall Street experience as economist, strategist and securities analyst. A monthly letter entitled The Dismal Optimist is produced for clients. Dr. Treadway also serves in a part time capacity as Chief Economist, C T RISKS, a new Hong Kong company that will assist Asian financial institutions with their risk management problems. On the educational front, Dr. Treadway has developed a special Masters level course focusing on securities analysis and discounted cash flow and incorporating elements of standard equilibrium pricing models, behavioral finance and historical trends. This course has been given as Adjunct Professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (SUFE) and the City University of Hong Kong. From 1965-2000 Dr. Treadway had a distinguished career on Wall Street and with major American financial institutions. For example, from 1978-1981 he served as Chief Economist at Fannie Mae. From 1985-1998 he served as institutional equity analyst and Managing Director at Smith Barney following savings and loans and government sponsored entities(GSEs). He was ranked as “all star” analyst eleven times by Institutional Investor Magazine. Dr. Treadway holds a PhD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, an MBA from New York University and a BA in English from Fordham University in Bronx, New York.